MLB best bets for Thu. 4/25: Odds, picks, predictions for Brewers vs. Pirates, Blue Jays vs. Royals

Brewers vs. Pirates

Thursday, April 25, 12:35 p.m. ET, MLB.tv
Brewers Team Total Over 4 Runs | Play to 5 (Caesars)

By D.J. James

Mitch Keller hasn't been the same starting pitcher that he was at the beginning of 2023. He has given up more hard contact than he did last season and is also striking out fewer than 20% of batters. His walk rate has ticked up and his xERA is over 4.60, not a strong indicator of future success. Yes, it is only April, but he has an awful matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers here.

The Brew Crew boasts a 121 wRC+ and a .789 OPS. Milwaukee has seven hitters with a xwOBA above .300, so most of the lineup should be able to hold its own.

Pittsburgh has a somewhat decent relief staff, but given how Keller may accrue pitches via the walk and multiple hard-hit balls, the Brewers should be in a great position to also jump on whichever long reliever the Pirates throw in a lost game.

Look for the Brewers to add on runs early and force Keller out of the game. Milwaukee has enough patience and a deep enough lineup to annoy Pittsburgh's starter. Take the Brewers to score Over 4 runs and play that up to five.

Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 4 Runs | Play to 5

Brewers vs. Pirates

Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110) | Play to +105 (DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Pittsburgh hands the ball to right-hander Mitch Keller, who should be a good fade candidate. Getting off to a tough start in 2024, Keller possesses a 4.80 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP through five starts.

His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as the right-hander ranks in the 28th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit%. Keller also struggles in the strikeout department, ranking in the 39th percentile in Whiff% and the 29th percentile in K%.

That is the avenue in which we'll fade Keller here. You can find his strikeout line at 5.5, with the under returning +110 at DraftKings. That's a line he's failed to surpass in four of his five starts this year, a trend likely to continue against Milwaukee.

The Brewers rank in the top half of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.

Pick: Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110) | Play to +105

Blue Jays vs. Royals

Thursday, April 25, 2:10 p.m. ET, MLB.tv
Royals -1.5 (+170) | Play to +160 (Bet365)

By Tony Sartori

Cole Ragans is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, though his surface-level stats are heavily weighed down by his recent outing against the Baltimore Orioles. He got shelled in that outing, but anyone in this league can have a bad day, especially against a lineup as stacked as Baltimore's.

Prior to that outing, Ragans boasted a 2.60 ERA through his first three starts of the season. The former first-round pick's underlying metrics suggest that we should expect him to look more like he did in those first three starts than his most recent one, which makes sense.

The southpaw ranks in the 62nd percentile or higher in xERA and Barrel%. Furthermore, Ragans fared well in his lone career start against Toronto, allowing just two runs on one hit through nearly six innings of work.

Meanwhile, Jose Berrios is primed for regression. The right-hander has gotten off to a nearly-perfect start this year with a 4-0 record, a 0.85 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP through his first five outings, but ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%.

Additionally, Berrios possesses a fade-worthy 5.44 ERA over his past eight starts against the Royals. And following the right-hander is a bullpen that cannot be trusted. Toronto's relief pitching ranks in the bottom five of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

Offensively, Toronto ranks in the in bottom 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average and home runs.

Kansas City outranks the Blue Jays in all of those categories and I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic for a multi-run win, especially at +170 via bet365.

Pick: Royals -1.5 (+170) | Play to +160